Miami Dolphins Owner: Steve Ross the Portrait of a Bona fide Businessmensch!

The Miami Dolphin's Sunlife Stadium

I was listening to Jimmy Cefalo's Radio Talk Show this morning while I sat in traffic. He was interviewing Steve Ross, the latest Owner of the NFL Franchise of the Miami Dolphins. The subject of course was the renovation of the Football Stadium, for which Mr. Ross seeks Public Funding help, as many Sports Franchise and Stadium owners do.

Miami Heat's AA Arena

For those of you who have followed the Fiasco of the past with regards to the first Miami Heat Arena and recently the catastrophic and scandalous scam of the Marlins Stadium, you must think that Ross is either out of his mind, asking for help from the County Authorities, or he must think the Miami-Dade County Politicians and the rest of us must be.

After the fast one the Miami Marlins pulled on the taxpayers a couple of years ago, Ross must have a Brass Pair the size of Footballs, to come out so soon and ask for what initially seemed to be public funding for his private stadium. I always say that if you choose to go into business for yourself, you must be prepared to pay the cost as readily as you are to reap the profits. Right? Private business is private business.

Miami Marlins Stadium

This morning's interview by Jimmy Cefalo opened my eyes on a few points. The deal, is not comparable by any means to those of the past like the Miami Heat Arena (at least the Heat has always kept its arena full and doesn't churn & burn the franchise and its fans like the Marlins do) or the Marlins Stadium. Ross knew that he faced an uphill battle with the authorities who must now prove they are neither corrupt nor mindless
drooling idiots by falling for the same trick twice. He face a public relation nightmare as well since Public Opinion  was decidedly turned against anymore public funding of private enterprise particularly another allegedly Rich Sports Franchise.

That is until you analyze the deal and the Dolphins' objective point by point:

1. The stadium has never received a dime of public money: In 1966 Joe Robbie founded the Franchise and 2 decades later built the "Joe Robbie Stadium" with his own funds, knowing he wouldn't get any public funding help. 
2. The "Sunlife Stadium" (current name of the Stadium) is the only in the NFL and in the US, who pays Property taxes to the County, since it has no public money invested in it. It currently pays approximately $4 Million annually in Property Taxes. Not too shabby.
3. The funding is essentially an Interest Free Loan to the franchise that will be fully repaid over the next 2 decades by the Dolphin's Franchise
4. The funding will come from additional taxes on Hotel rooms fares, some of which is already being collected. So tourists will essentially pay for it.
5. Mr. Ross has committed in writing to bring 20 Major International events to the Stadium, including 2 superbowl events the first of which will be Superbowl 50 or 51 and some 18 BCS events, not too mentions MLS and other Major Soccer Events.
6. There is  a penalty  of well over $100 Million, if the Dolphins fail to bring those 20 events to town.
7. The cost of the Referendum vote has been paid up front already by Mr. Ross, around $4.8 Million and is NON-REFUNDABLE, even though, the bill that would allow the referendum vote to take place is currently going through the State House of Representatives and may not even pass. If that is the case, the Referendum won't happen and Mr. Ross would have lost his $4.8 Million, not to mention the fact that he will be stuck with an aging Stadium that can't really compete with other venues for major events like the Superbowl.
8. Mr. Ross became a Billionaire in Real Estate Development, but the Miami Dolphins Franchise is in the Red and has been for the past few years. He knew that when he bought it and did it anyway, confident in his ability that he would be able to turn it around once he gained full control of the ownership (Huyizenga out).
9. Ross never threatened to take the Dolphins out of Miami to get the deal, like the Marlins did shamelessly.
10. Mr Ross signed a comittment binding himself and his Estate not to sell the Franchise to anyone who might take the Dolphins out of Miami, for the next 30 years, thus limited his ability to leverage or liquidate his business asset.

Taking the above 10 points into consideration, one must wonder about Mr. Ross' business wisdom. From a busisness stand point it doesn't appear to make much sense. Why would he pursue this, the risks seem to outweight the potential benefits.

Either that or Mr. Ross is as tough as the Game of Football his team plays. He is risking a lot in Financial Capital and Business Credibility Capital. He grew up in Miami Beach, and as a Floridian he remains true to his roots, in that aspect. He wants to rebuild the franchise and make it the winning team it was in the late 70's. The one who still holds the record of 2 consecutive Superbowl rings with at least one fully undefeated season. If he pulls this off, he would have demonstrated the extent of his exceptional business acumen, by transforming against all odds, a major business enterprise, that has been failing for years by all standards and whose fan base and political support has been steadily eroding. It is plagued by deterioration assets, saddled with the worse deal of the NFL history (no public money ever received, and the only one paying local property taxes). It is competing with venues, for major events, with brand new State of the Art Stadiums less than 10 years old outnumbering the Dolphins facility 10 to 1. I could go on and on...

So he has proven that he is reliable and frank. I mean, he already fronted the Referendum cost and is not even sure that referendum will be approved by the State Legistlators. Did I mention that the upfront cost are not refundable? He was open about not moving the franchise out of the county, no matter what the outcome of the referendum if there is one, will be. He also knows that if he pulls this off, and turns the team around to the winning team we all know it can be, he will have a gold mine in his hands and will more than make up for all the risks he is taking. So he is very brave but also a very smart risk taker. This isn't the apparent brazen move of a gambler. The Franchise is in a pretty bad shape on all levels. Attendance at the stadium is low and he admitted to Jimmy Cefalo that no matter what happens, even if he gets his way with everything, the only way to pull out of the financial mess the Dolphins are mired in, is to win games and keep winning games. Winning is everything. In a sports franchise, winning translates into earnings and then into net profit. Mr. Ross is not only a visionary of the Caliber of Joe Robbie when it comes to this NFL Franchise, he is also a Formidable Strategist. Everymove has been evaluated in advance for its risks/benefits ratio. Everything has been carefully planned, weighed and he has made preparations for any adverse event that might occur on the way, including a total failure of the project.

Jimmy's interview has opened my eyes on this matter. I no longer have the negative Knee-jerk reaction have had when hearing of this deal prior to this morning. Those were the side effect to the sourness I still feel from the Marlins Deal.

Mr. Ross, you have my RESPECT, as a business man, a Corporate citizen, as a strategist, as a Man, you have impressed me today. You truly are a Business Mensch!

GO DOLPHINS!!!

Will China overtake the US as the World's largest economy by 2016?

China forecasted to overtake US by 2016

This was the title of an  Article by Simon Rabinovitch in the Financial time of March 22nd of 2013. When it comes to International trade and world Economies, China is the Country on everyone's lips. But what do you think? Is it that close? And if it is, would it be so bad? This article was just brought to my attention again in a business group forum. A lot of the responses to it were very antagonistic, not to say outright belligerent, as if it was a Them against US type of situation. This is business, it is always them against us, for a while and then them and us against the others, and so on. The Economies are fusing with one another more than ever and faster and faster as time advances. So will soon be us against us as we will all be swimming in the same pond. It is not a political or national matter but a matter of economics, worldwide, global market economics.

As usual, I'll engage here, what I never do professionally as a business strategist, or business development consultant. I will engage in predicting the future. After all, this is my blog, and the purpose of it is to share my opinions, conceptions and interpretations of what I see out there in the business world at large. So here it is...

If you look at it from a strategic point of view, they owe their fast growth to 4 main factors:

1. Their totalitarian communist regime allows them to control fully or influence greatly the means of Production and distribution of their country. 
2. Their infinite amount of extremely cheap labor (including child labor) coupled with their total disregard for Human Rights, environmental regulations, World trade and Fair Trade practice regulations gives them  a distinct advantage over any other nation in the world, except maybe India who can rival with them point to point (well almost, India is a wee bit more respectful of "Most" human rights and World Trade agreements).
3. The manipulation of their national currency with impunity by the Regime, keeps their prices even lower... (but sooner or later that pressure cooker is bound to blow).
4. Japan, the European Union and the US are the worlds 3 largest markets and are all addicted to their consumerism and the comfort it brings. Their consumers constantly need more products, faster and cheaper, only China can respond to those criteria... for the moment.

However, their very success is what is slowing them down. China has made one huge strategic mistake. It focused solely on Export, bet everything on foreign currency and foreign markets to shore up its fast growing economy that it neglected its own national market. China is the largest human (as opposed to corporate consumer) potential consumer, market, but for it to transform into the largest world economy it needs to raise the purchasing power of its average citizen, not just the citizens in the large Modern Metropoles of the East who live off the Foreign Investors and Foreign companies, (who have come to invest in the Chinese market in hopes to participate in the "future" feeding frenzy)...

Although the standard of living of the average Chinese citizen, particularly in rural and semi-rural area, has improved dramatically, over the past decade, it still has a very long way to go in order for that average citizen to be able to afford the traditional Western or even Domestic traditional consumer product. It will be a ways yet before you see 2 or more TV in each household, even the poorest (as it is in the US or the EU), 2 cars in each garage, a PC in each household, a mobile phone for each family member above 13 years of age...etc. The purchasing power is still too low, the currency keeps anything foreign too expensive (not to mention the tariffs), the household budget for food and shelter still represents more than 50% of the entire household Income for the largest segment of the population. The New Millionaires and Billionaires are scheming as fast as they can, to acquire assets abroad so they can emigrate with their families and "defect", even knowing that the Government will seize all their assets within the country. Some Billionaires are ready to sacrifice their lives as Billionaires in China, in order to live as Millionaires in the US, Japan or Europe.

However, their largest problem is not so much that their domestic market is not strong enough to sustain their growth in anyway shape or form within the next 2 decades.... No, it will eventually get there... maybe after a regime change, similar to what happened in the former Soviet Union but in a smoother fashion. No, their biggest problem is the source of their new-found wealth. The very markets to which they ship all their goods, the US, Japan and the EU have all hit a brick wall in their economic growth. As these economies slow and the purchasing power of the average Japanese, European and North American ( Us & Canada) disintegrates, they buy less and less goods (most of which come from China). Moreover, as the times become harsher, the average consumer who is also feeling the pinch as an employee or employer of these tough economic times, start to resent the trade practice of the Chinese. In this age of hyper-speed Information access, a voluntary choice is made to buy anything but Chinese.

Their strength comes from sucking the economic life out of our markets, what happens when we are so weak that we cannot or choose not to buy their products anymore as it is already happening? (their drastic decrease in growth from double digit to single digit practically from one year to the other). They are weakened as well since their domestic market is not ready yet to take over the consumption of all the goods produced to keep feeding  their economic expansion.

So I would not be surprised if that dooms date of 2016 is pushed back a decade at least. Without the 4 major world markets actively buying them, they cannot sustain themselves even if they experience stagflation.  The growing middle class is essentially in the vast Urban Centers of the Eastern Seaboard. It is not large enough yet and has not yet reached critical mass to self-develop, economically speaking. The slightest decline in the Chinese economy will see that budding middle class hit the hardest, reverting right back to the poor and very poor, creating a domino effect on the entire Economy from which it will be very hard to recover.  Japan's Government has been injecting funds into their economy trying to jump-start it for the past decade and a half to no avail. The Nikkei Index who flirted with 40,000 still remains in the suburbs of 10,000 ten years later.

A lot can happen in 5 years, more even in 10. The only way to boost the Chinese Economy is to allow more free market  enterprising, particularly by deregulating and liberating the creation of free small enterprise with very low Government taxation. That is the most powerful weapon in the Chinese arsenal, as the Chines is intrinsically a merchant at heart. Like the Middle-Eastern Man, trade is in their soul. The Chinese Business Man is a risk taker, a Gambler, that risk taking intrepidity is the essential fuel of a humming economy with solid individual and Small enterprises at its core. The conundrum comes from the fact that liberty, freedom of enterprise and the taste of comfort is not only contagious, it is invigorating. It gives strength of character and  reinforces convictions. Those are traits who do not sit well with a Totalitarian communist regime. Once the Fox is out of the box, it is a lot tougher to stuff it back in. As the middle class grows and its standard of living rises along with it. The salaries will rise as well. The cost of labor will consequently be higher, beginning thus a leveling of the playing fields with the competing foreign markets.

I predict that Socialism will eventually morph into a more if not completely free market economy within 15 to 20 years (Or sooner if a major economic disaster ensues within the next 3 years). Once that happens, then yes, China WILL BE the worlds Largest Economy, but not necessarily the strongest yet. In the Next 3 decades the EU will be a Powerful Market with the newly joined Eastern European countries much stronger economically. So will Russia be. So China, Japan, North American, the EU and Russia will be the Top Economies jostling for top spot without a clear distant winner. Some Latin American Markets will be closing in from Behind, like Chile, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina. The African and South Pacific Markets with a very rare exceptions will bring up the rear.

Don't fear China, plan for it. It won't be so soon as the Doom Sayers prophecy, but only fools ignore it. China is a Sleeping Economic Giant.  Napoleon said: "Quand la Chine s'eveillera, le monde tremblera". "When China will wake, the world will quake". That's a prophecy I believe in, so prepare yourselves for it so you can take advantage of that market when it does become strong enough to play in the big tank with us hungry sharks..

So, who's predictions were right about the Elections?

 In 2009 I wrote a long winded article about what let to Obama's victory over Clinton first, then over Mc Cain. Last August I revisited that article and updated it in prevision of this year's Presidential elections, adding my personal take and prediction on who might win the White House this time around depending on what may or may not occur shortly before election day. I copy-pasted the Paragraph that spells it out and I must admit that until yesterday I didn't think that I was right with prediction, so here it is:

..."People want to know who has the best plan moving forward. As things stand, I'd say that unless the conservatives wake up and put out a detailed, step by step plan, clear and simple enough to understand, it's a toss up. On the other hand, if they focus on demonstrating, in a very concise and understandable way, how they are proposing to resolve today's woes, it's their election to lose. Their message must be simple enough so that the Lay-Man can make up its own mind whether it could work or not without relying on some Pundit in the media to put it in words he wants to hear but doesn't trust. Then it will be a landslide for the conservatives. If there are any doubts about how to move forward and if the economy expands ever so slightly and/or unemployment figures drop below 8%, then Obama will most likely be re-elected by the narrowest of margins but re-elected nevertheless. However, if History repeats itself, meaning, if poor economy will work in favor of the "Challenger", then Romney will be elected. Poetic reversal of roles just 4 years later, isn't it?"...

So it would appear that redefining  how to compute the unemployment rate was enough. I must admit that I overestimated the US Electorate, I truly thought they would see through the numbers manipulation. How can on call someone in the middle of the day in a survey and ask them if they are currently working, and if they say yes, take that for a fact. I mean, it is the middle of the day and you are calling them at home. Grant it, I work from my home office, but you wouldn't get me on the phone on my home phone line during work hours... well that's another story altogether.

Let's do some Monday morning Quarterbacking then. What was it that won the President's reelection? Or better yet, what was it that lost it for the Former Governor of MA? In my humble opinion, the electoral team. The President's Team, led by  David Axelrod, was ruthless from day one, it never stopped. Then didn't pick up from where they left off in 2008, they kept going full speed every single day for the past 4 years. The Campaign Chief oversaw every statement that came out of the White House, he spoke more for the President on important issues than the President himself or even the White House Spokes Person. The Spokesperson's boss, wasn't the President it was Axelrod himself. He's the one who responded to deep probing media questions every time the President was vulnerable, not just in the past year, but even during the first 2 years of the Presidency. Axelrod led a formidable campaign team, ruthless, calculating, extremely knowledgeable of its electorate. He knew everything there was to know about anyone who might even consider a fleeting thought to re-electing the President and his team zeroed in on that voter and never let him/her go, till election day.

Facing that Powerful machine, was the same timorous team that led McCain Campaign all the way to defeat. It seemed that Romney had finally the wind in his back the last few weeks of the campaign, particularly after the very first debate. I thought, that's it, keep up the pressure that way and don't let up till election day. But for some reason, Romney let up, he eased back, didn't bring up the Benghazi fiasco, he was more concern in looking Presidential that pointing out how Un-Presidential Obama had been and was till the last day. Was it over confidence, the fear of appear petty, racist, vindictive? Maybe, but that was a fatal mistake. Pettiness, revengeful and playing the race card didn't bother Obama and his team on bit. At the end, he won and Romney lost. That's one thing Monday Morning Quarterbacking doesn't change: The final score of the game.

So congratulations to David Axelrod for a brilliant Strategy, extreme flexibility and amazing capacity to adapt to the worse possible situation. Mr. Axelrod is extremely savvy and would make one formidable CEO and/or Military General. Congratulations also to President Barrack Obama. Let's pray that he will lead this wonderful country back to greatness. I truly wish this administration the best, for the best of the country. Like it or not, he is the President and the one that must lead. The question is: Will he Lead? He has not done so yet. The good news is, that there are no more re-election goal in the horizon for him, so he will finally be able to stop campaigning and start governing. It took 4 years, but better late than never right? May God bless the President and guide him and his team and may God bless the United States of America. There is trouble ahead and we need a steady hand at the helm to see us through the Super Storm brewing on the horizon.

French President gets inspiration from his Hero: Mitterrand

France, is following the rest of Europe down the slippery slope of demagoguery and knee jerk reactivity governing.

If you've clicked on the above video, you've had a good laugh at the expense of both Electoral Campaigns and particularly at the Media and the pseudo-journalists who still think their personal opinion is actually factual news. If you are still scratching your head about that "New Flash" video Satire, then... there isn't much I can do to light your lantern or help you in any way. So for those of you who are still following, I'll go on with my rant about the new French Government.

Unemployment is at the highest it has been in decades in most European countries, and so is budget deficit. Greece is the more conspicuous case since it already went over the edge of the cliff and is in free fall. Italy is poised at the edge of the abyss looking down and trying not to tip over with Spain about to slam into its back followed by Portugal, Ireland and England.

France is in trouble also and well on its way down the slope behind England. Until last year it was desperately trying to stay put on top of the hill, firmly lashed to the German Oak tree. French President Francois Hollande, however must have been digging in the attic of the Palais de l'Elysee. He probably found his hero's Diary in an old Rosewood Presidential Desk discarded in the 90's. He is a loyal disciple of Mitterand, you'll have to give him that.

He recently announced that he's proposing to raise the Income taxes for the top echelon earners to 75%. Unfortunately he is not a very good student. He's the kind of student who takes action before he finishes reading the entire lesson and therefore misses the whole point of the exercise. He is a slow reader and is probably still reading the pages of the early 80's and has not yet passed 1983. This is the only plausible explanation I can come up with to explain why Hollande purposefully let go of the German Tree trunk keeping him and his country's economy relatively safe on the hill top. Not only that, but besides letting go, he is actually stepping on the Gas.

You see, by the end of 1983, Francois Mitterand did a complete U turn on the most drastic of his measures [i.e: "Carnet de Change" where every citizen leaving the country, for business or pleasure, had to declare how much funds s(he) was taking abroad. There was a quota per trip and a total per year assigned to each person, and that booklet was to be shown upon exit at the ports and airports and again upon re-entry to ensure that the "Flight of Capital" was kept to a minimum]. There were also new taxes instated, and existing ones raised [Wealth tax]. Needless to say there was a backfire of monumental proportions, economically and consequently politically. Tonton Mitterrand had to walk back a majority of these measures illico presto. That's what his disciple, the Current "Francois-in-charge" didn't get. Had he kept reading he would have avoided the whole headache by actually looking at the bigger picture and see what would actually jump-start the economy. Maybe he thinks there is a prize at the bottom of the precipice and wants to be the first one to get it. Well, if that's his goal, then he'll get it alright.

Didn't Einstein say: Folly is trying the same experiment multiple times expecting a different result? I guess, Hollande is not interested in anything German these days.

Will Election History repeat itself, only 4 years later?

I've always said that History is the most patient of Teachers. It will repeat itself over and over again, for as long as it takes for Mankind to learn the lesson.

Does this mean that what happened leading up to the 2008 Elections, will repeat itself here too? Let's look at what happened and see if it still fits today's scenario. Recent history is supposed to be the easiest to recall, right? Well.... Hind sight is 20/20 as the old saying goes. So let’s see if by looking back we can retrace the steps that brought us here.

Back in 2008, in spite of the economic indicators, we were being told that the economy had been shrinking since December of  2007. We’ll leave it at that since I don’t have any data at hand to back up any contradicting arguments I may oppose to that statement and it is not particularly relevant to the point I am making. The fact is we are in the midst of a world wide economic crisis. Let’s also not discuss the reasons for this current situation, that is the subject of another discussion better left for another day altogether.

With that in mind let’s start retracing our steps from January 2008 till today. What dominated the news all over the US and the world during the very first quarter of 2008?

It was the raging battle between Hillary and Barack for their party’s nomination. The economic news were starting to make noise, but it wasn’t carried out as blaringly as it was trumpeted right after B.O cinched his party's nomination. Bush started down the slippery slope of stimulus nonsense, by sending a few dollars to everyone who gets a tax return check and even those who don’t. That was fine and dandy, but as we all knew it amounted to naught. It was just political posturing design to instigate hope, assuage fear and spur consumer confidence that would hopefully translate in consumer spending. Well it was a flash in the pan. It was bright, pretty to look at while it lasted, but if you blinked you missed it.

What happened next?

Well Obama won the Nomination of the DNC, then the conventions came. First the Democrats Convention, with the Greek God Looking Temple and the Hoopla of the media, heralding the historical record of the viewership, rivaling the super-bowl ratings even exceeding it. Well we might as well have declared Obama’s victory right there and then. The media reporters were hard pressed to keep their pants clean, so overcome they were with ecstasy and thrills running up their legs just by listening to the God-sent speaking in public.

Then the RNC came, nobody expected much, I mean how can you top the DNC’s it was such a fantastic example of showmanship and entertainment. To make matters worse for the RNC, the hurricanes that summer forced them to postpone it. Imagine that. The first 2 days were killed….

Then the unthinkable happened, in the last 2 days of that small budget affair, the RNC and their base exploded with the advent of Sarah Palin. She ignited the world with her speech and was able to achieve in 1 hour what took Bush 8 years to do: Transfer the raging Bush-Hate to herself and even (as it that was possible) up it a few notches. The viewership blew away that of the “historical one” of the DNC a few days earlier, (How dare she? LOL!!!).

The Obama campaign wasn’t as certain of its victory anymore, it needed something to drastically change the game. Something scary, something big and something that could be blamed squarely on the past administration and by association on the McCain/Palin Ticket.

That’s when you have to admire the versatility of the Campaign team of Obama. How shrewd and quick they were in taking advantage of the growing world crisis (that was long overdue), after the DNC convention, the stock market tanked, after the RNC convention, it rallied, coincidence? Maybe.  The fact of the matter was that if the economy took a turn for the worse, the republican ticket was done for.  No matter who ran opposite of the McCain/Palin team they would win. The media hyped up the crisis 10 fold, consumer confidence fell, dragging with them the indicators making the whole mess a self fulfilling prophecy.

Then the Genius from Goldman Sachs, then Secretary of the Treasury Paulson came up with the Brilliant “Coup de Grace”. Let’s come up with the stupidest idea we can to bury this economy once and for all and let’s do it in a way that will create such a precedence that it will open the door of Pandora’s box and let all Hell break loose.

I have no idea what went through the Bush administration collective minds to actually push that and pass the TARP stupidity Bill. If you cover a turd with Silk, it’s still a turd and stinks just as much even if you no longer see the reality of it under the layer of silk, it still poisons the air you breathe.

So the first solution to problem not only did not solve it, but it actually made it worse. Back then the reason for the problem was believed (rightfully so), that government involvement in the lending practice of the financial world, forcing the institutions to lower their lending criteria to allow people who could never afford a small mortgage to borrow huge ones, without proof of income, without deposit, without background check, no matter what the credit history was. Then everyone was surprised that greed took over and the feeding frenzy that ensued created 2 Real Estate bubbles in the past 3 decades and the last one landed us where we are now.

I have no idea who Paulson really is or what was his original motive, or even how he was able to drop the "bomb" he did with the original bail out/Stimulus, but it opened the door for what is happening now. Particularly the way he did it.

The alarmist signs started, by coincidence when Obama won the nomination of his party. By then the "hate bush" plan was working so well for the liberals that "victory" was as sure as the bacon flavored bill we just had shoved down our collective throats was going to pass. Why do you think the entire campaign was (as Usual), vote for me, I am young, adorable, new to the game, and most importantly, I am not the guy you hate (W).  It worked for the bloodiest democratic campaign in history. Obama won the day over Hillary, by being the “agent of change”.

Unfortunately, in spite of their attempts to paste [on Mc Cain] W's face, it didn't work so well. People are not as stupid as liberals think they are. Demonizing Mc Cain backfired on them. More over, when he chose Sarah Palin, she stole their "I am new" campaign fire, plus the "I am making history" since she also was breaking barriers in her own right. Plus she had what he didn't : Executive experience. They demonized her too, but it was clear that in spite of the $700 MM bank rolled campaign they were seriously loosing ground.

So what did it for them? They needed something scary, I mean it work for Bush with the 9/11 crisis. So is it serendipity that this financial mess conveniently blew up sometime in September? No matter how Democrat-like the Republicans acted by doling out money, inflating government, creating programs...etc it seemed that nothing would assuage the hate the past administration provoked among liberals. What it did, was alienate their base, the conservative who started to want them out almost as bad as their ideological counterparts. Back then the puzzle was just a jumble of pieces not making any sense. It did however create an atmosphere where the Republicans became more and more centrist trying to save the pubic opinion of themselves and in fact simply dug a bigger hole to bury their political career.

This brings us to today, 4 years later. Within the first few weeks of the current administration's reign, the media drop all the alarm bells about the economy. In fact they even started to talk about "Encouraging signs of Recovery". As if some news writer had just gutted a chicken in some Green room and was reading the auguries. None of the so-called "signs of recovery" were apparent to anyone, but the Media kept inundating us with rosy news of how worse it could have been. New concepts were invented. It didn't matter now  how precise the Jobs figures were, because it all became irrelevant. Yes, irrelevant because of the magic of semantic re-organizing. Yes, many terms deemed "Negative" to the public opinion were banished from the Administration's spokes people, liberal political pundits, and the general media's vocabulary. Job creation were no longer the most important thing in these scary times, no, we had to settle for "Jobs Saved". Why? well because it is easy to advance any number and impossible to disprove. If Obama says he "Created or Saved" 5 Million Jobs, and you don't agree with that figure, the onus is on you to disprove it. How can that be done. If only One Hundred Thousand  net Jobs were created and that fact can easily be verified, the argument advanced by the administration is that, if it not for the action they took, 4.9 Million Jobs would have been lost, therefore they "Created or Saved 5 Million Jobs (100K Jobs + 4.9 M Jobs = 5M Jobs). Convenient and very clever, isn't it? A bit like that Nobel Peace Prize awarded even before he took office, before he got a chance to do anything, just because of the "Hope" he represents and the positive "Change" he can bring to the world. Wow that Scandinavian Committee in charge of the vetting of the Nobel Candidates really buffed their Cristal ball before they made that decision. It must have been crispy clear for them to be so sure. 

So here we are today. The Economy of the US is not better, it is much worse on all accounts, the financial sector is still shaking and the Real Estate sector is still years away from recovery. Unemployment looks like its resting comfortably above 8%* and poised to remain that way for a long time, the way things are going. So what has changed? Well for the US, nothing much, however, the catastrophic situation here is nothing compared to what is happening in Europe. From Greece to the UK, going through Italy, Spain Portugal and Ireland, the picture is grim to say the least. Banking "malpractice", political pandering and corruption resulted in the explosion of an economic and financial catastrophe that was years in the making. The US is now being blamed  for either not interfering enough, or interfering too much or simply making unrealistic demands and imposing austerity measures on Europe's economy that it was not willing to uphold when its own economy imploded and that the "Printing" of Dollars is a major part of what is going on worldwide in today's Global economy. 

So to summarize, the world still hates the US, for the reasons it did before and for new reasons too. It lost its respect for this country because it is no longer feared and seems to have lost its will or worse, its ability to lead in any way shape or form in all aspects of International policy. The US economy is still extremely dependent on its major European trading partners to purchases its goods (Asian mostly sells to the US) and with their economy failing, the American economy can't count on it to jump-start things here. The rest of the world is now looking for another leader to give them their quick fix to their economic predicament, and thus all eyes are turning towards China. What a Mess!!!!

The situation seems just as Catastrophic as it was in 2008. In fact it is much worse and this time the shoe is on the other foot. The Liberals are in charge now and  the countries to which they've been pointing  as examples to justify their social reform policies are falling apart, and doing so particularly because of those policies that have been in place for the past several decades. So is the bad economy going to work against the current administration's reelection? Most likely yes. No matter how much Obama blames Bush, true or not, people are tired of hearing why we are here. They want to hear how we are going to get out of this mess. 

People want to know who has the best plan moving forward. As things stand, I'd say that unless the conservatives wake up and put out a detailed, step by step plan, clear and simple enough to understand, it's a toss up. On the other hand, if they focus on demonstrating, in a very concise and understandable way, how they are proposing to resolve today's woes, it's their election to lose. Their message must be simple enough so that the Lay-Man can make up its own mind whether it could work or not without relying on some Pundit in the media to put it in words he wants to hear but doesn't trust. Then it will be a landslide for he conservatives. If there are any doubts about how to move forward and if the economy expands ever so slightly and/or unemployment figures drop below 8%, then Obama will most likely be re-elected by the narrowest of margins but re-elected nevertheless. However, if History repeats itself, meaning, if poor economy will work in favor of the "Challenger", then Romney will be elected. Poetic reversal of roles just 4 years later, isn't it?

However, on the world stage, if History were to truly repeat itself, then there is another comparison to be drawn. From my personal point of view, I'll draw the historical comparison between 2 eras in 2 countries: The US and France. In 1976, the US economy was in a recession, just coming out of the Viet Nam War fiasco and the Water Gate Scandal that landed Ford prematurely in the Oval Office. Any one who could fog a mirror could have won a race for the white house against Ford, the animosity against the Republicans and the Hate of Nixon ensured that. So Jimmy Carter (the benevolent but clueless Mr. Magoo as I like to call him) was hoisted on the podium and tried to lead a country, that felt awkward in its own skin, embarassed by its first Military loss in its history, and with a serious identity crisis. American was in full self-pity and self-deprecating mode. Just like a teenager rejecting its strict but loving parents rule, it desperately seeked approval of the rest of the world. America was desperately needing to be seen as the good guy again. Sounds familiar?

In that same period, in France, Valery Giscard d'Estaing was reigning at the Elysee, aloof in his reverie of past Imperial Glory of a France who was no more. Europe was feeling the recession as well and trying to adapt to the new modern post colonial world. The economic boom of the reconstruction resulting from the aftermath of WWII, had waned and the rappatriation en masse of the former colonists of the Former North African French Territorries took a toll on the countries finances, exacerbating further a growing unemployement problem. That exodus had ran its course a few years back already, but the economy had not been able to absorb the cost of the added population. In effect, other European countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal were in much worse shape and their people were flooding France, Germany, England and Switzerland with immigrants seeking economic opportunity. The French President couldn't connect with the population, he "inherited" the position after his predecessor, Georges Pompidou, had the misfortune of passing away before the end of his term (7 years). Pompidou was appreciated by the population and considered a "Good" President. His successor, however, was perceived by the masses as a pompous snob with an attitude similar to that of Marie-Antoinette a couple of centuries earlier.

In May of 1981, the Socialist, Francois Mitterrand replaced him at the Elysee Palace without breaking  a sweat, just because he represented change and promised to help the "little guy" and make the "Rich Guy" pay his fair share. Back in the US, the economy was in much worse situation than 4 years earlier, in spite of the promises made by "Mr. Magoo", and the Foreign affairs were a mess with the US Embassy situation in Iran. That same year, after loosing the Republican Primary 4 years Earlier, and a shaking start in the race till that summer, Ronald Reagan, the "Cowboy from Hollywood" was gaining momentum in the polls, nothing drastic, but steady. He performed poorly on his first debate against Jimmy Carter, but turned things around dramatically in the following debates. So much so, that come election day in November 1981, he took over the Oval Office in a Landslide. Only a few month before, most pundits had already written him off altogether. Mr. Magoo's reelection bid had seemed just natural, a "done deal". The elections process, really just a formality to confirm what everyone so evidently knew would happen. Sounds familiar too? So the US gained Ronald Reagan, now viewed by conservatives as the Standard by which Conservative Presidential Candidates measure themselves. France on the other hand, finally rewarded the hard working Socialist Party, who had been trying to take power at the head of the Government since the turn of the century.

Fast forward 21 years to May 2012. France elects Francois II. Europe Economic woes, seed the fertile ground for Populist Politics and Socialists take the opportunity to pander and promise the return of painless better days. Francois Hollande beats Nicolas Sarkozy who was considered elitists and out of touch with the pain of the common man. So will November 2012 bring  the same to the US, 1981 did? Will Mitt Romney be the Cowboy who wins the House and saves the day? Is Mr. Obama, today's Mr. Magoo, kind but completely clueless, wandering around, flailing blindling through the last days of his presidency? The parallels are numerous, gas prices are through the roof and have been for the past 4 years, unemployment is at the highest it has been in decades, the world still hates America. Benghazi is even worse than the Iran Embassy hostage situation. Obama seems to have fumbled the 2 worse situations of recent history into one: The Benghazi Mess** compiles both of the Iran Hostage fiasco with the Watergate Cover up. Well is that another nail on his Presidential Coffin? We will know for sure by November 6th.
 

Social Safety net for everyone and merit-less entitlement programs have been tried, yes, and proven time and again that it DOES NOT WORK!!! There's no "Social El Dorado", no perfect system and whoever claims to know how to create the perfect society is either a fool or a liar. We are not bees, or ants or termites. Humans are the only Societal Animal that is fiercely individualist. That's the Human Paradox. It is also our strength, what gives us our super adaptability faculty. Adversity forces us to adapt. Take adversity away and we cease to try to adapt and cease to seek to better our condition on our own. We become complacent and if things get uncomfortable, we wait for someone else to act as the agent of change to return us to our sedating comfort. The more things are done for us, the less we attempt to do for ourselves. Without that incentive, we become indolent sheep, more sedated to the stimuli of life and its dangers.

Our independence and thirst for freedom stems from that individuality. It makes us fight for survival against all odds, what gives us the strength to bounce back from the depth of the Abyss of Despair and soar to the limitless sky. This country was founded by Men and Women who came from the bottomless pit of despair from all around the world. People who know that can take comfort in the fact that once they hit rock bottom, they will be able to use that very bottom, to push back on it and launch themselves back up. The lack of Safety net is dangerous, yes, but it is also the greatest motivator to not fail to try harder. However the apogee of Despair is not once you hit rock bottom, but when you are falling and trying to hold on to what you have, to the past as change crumbles it into a new reality. That is when despair is at its most powerful state. It is when your fear of losing what you have, that it is at its apex and when you are the most vulnerable to any deceit. That is when you grasp at straws and refuse to face reality. Once you hit rock bottom, reality hits you in the face whether you wish to acknowledge it or not. You have no choice. That's when Despair looses its power and starts to crumble to ashes and from it rises Hope. When you have nothing left to loose, you have everything to gain...back...and then some. Social justice is a myth, compassion however is real. Philanthropy is also very real. While the former only needs a solid head and a sensitive heart, the latter requires a modicum of financial stability. Even if you donate your time and knowledge, you need to be materially comfortable enough to spare the time, effort and thought. If you are busy barely surviving, you will not spare a second thought to whoever is in a worse predicament you are. It is easier to save a man sinking in "quick sands" when one has both feet firmly planted on solid ground, armed with the necessary rope, perch or other useful tools, than by jumping in the troubled area along side the man.

The forefathers of this country understood that individualistic trait of the Human Character and recognized its strength and its fallacies. That is why they framed the government of this nation the way they did. They gave more power to the Individual over the Politician, more power to the individual States than to the Federal Government and thus assured the power of this Nation and its posterity because that  Power is anchored on the fierce independent, self-sufficient, self relying spirit of each inhabitant of this land, whether he's been here for generations or just got here off the boat, plane or raft. The sooner the Politicians remember that, the sooner this country will get back on track leading the world.  This is, after all, the Cup which overflows to the rest of the world. Whatever it is filled with, always overflows and spills over to the rest of the Nations of the World, Good or Bad.

*(even though "creative reporting" has it at 7.9% by calling people at home in the middle of the day and asking them if they are working, yeah, right, that data beats empirical data based on company reporting and unemployment benefit registration)
** Updated on 11/5/12