Tuesday, August 7, 2012

Will Election History repeat itself, only 4 years later?

I've always said that History is the most patient of Teachers. It will repeat itself over and over again, for as long as it takes for Mankind to learn the lesson.


Does this mean that what happened leading up to the 2008 Elections, will repeat itself here too? Let's look at what happened and see if it still fits today's scenario. Recent history is supposed to be the easiest to recall, right? Well.... Hind sight is 20/20 as the old saying goes. So let’s see if by looking back we can retrace the steps that brought us here.

Back in 2008, in spite of the economic indicators, we were being told that the economy had been shrinking since December of  2007. We’ll leave it at that since I don’t have any data at hand to back up any contradicting arguments I may oppose to that statement and it is not particularly relevant to the point I am making. The fact is we are in the midst of a world wide economic crisis. Let’s also not discuss the reasons for this current situation, that is the subject of another discussion better left for another day altogether.

With that in mind let’s start retracing our steps from January 2008 till today. What dominated the news all over the US and the world during the very first quarter of 2008?
It was the raging battle between Hillary and Barack for their party’s nomination. The economic news were starting to make noise, but it wasn’t carried out as blaringly as it was trumpeted right after B.O cinched his party's nomination. Bush started down the slippery slope of stimulus nonsense, by sending a few dollars to everyone who gets a tax return check and even those who don’t. That was fine and dandy, but as we all knew it amounted to naught. It was just political posturing design to instigate hope, assuage fear and spur consumer confidence that would hopefully translate in consumer spending. Well it was a flash in the pan. It was bright, pretty to look at while it lasted, but if you blinked you missed it.

What happened next?

Well Obama won the Nomination of the DNC, then the conventions came. First the Democrats Convention, with the Greek God Looking Temple and the Hoopla of the media, heralding the historical record of the viewership, rivaling the super-bowl ratings even exceeding it. Well we might as well have declared Obama’s victory right there and then. The media reporters were hard pressed to keep their pants clean, so overcome they were with ecstasy and thrills running up their legs just by listening to the God-sent speaking in public.

Then the RNC came, nobody expected much, I mean how can you top the DNC’s it was such a fantastic example of showmanship and entertainment. To make matters worse for the RNC, the hurricanes that summer forced them to postpone it. Imagine that. The first 2 days were killed….

Then the unthinkable happened, in the last 2 days of that small budget affair, the RNC and their base exploded with the advent of Sarah Palin. She ignited the world with her speech and was able to achieve in 1 hour what took Bush 8 years to do: Transfer the raging Bush-Hate to herself and even (as it that was possible) up it a few notches. The viewership blew away that of the “historical one” of the DNC a few days earlier, (How dare she? LOL!!!).

The Obama campaign wasn’t as certain of its victory anymore, it needed something to drastically change the game. Something scary, something big and something that could be blamed squarely on the past administration and by association on the McCain/Palin Ticket.

That’s when you have to admire the versatility of the Campaign team of Obama. How shrewd and quick they were in taking advantage of the growing world crisis (that was long overdue), after the DNC convention, the stock market tanked, after the RNC convention, it rallied, coincidence? Maybe.  The fact of the matter was that if the economy took a turn for the worse, the republican ticket was done for.  No matter who ran opposite of the McCain/Palin team they would win. The media hyped up the crisis 10 fold, consumer confidence fell, dragging with them the indicators making the whole mess a self fulfilling prophecy.

Then the Genius from Goldman Sachs, then Secretary of the Treasury Paulson came up with the Brilliant “Coup de Grace”. Let’s come up with the stupidest idea we can to bury this economy once and for all and let’s do it in a way that will create such a precedence that it will open the door of Pandora’s box and let all Hell break loose.

I have no idea what went through the Bush administration collective minds to actually push that and pass the TARP stupidity Bill. If you cover a turd with Silk, it’s still a turd and stinks just as much even if you no longer see the reality of it under the layer of silk, it still poisons the air you breathe.

So the first solution to problem not only did not solve it, but it actually made it worse. Back then the reason for the problem was believed (rightfully so), that government involvement in the lending practice of the financial world, forcing the institutions to lower their lending criteria to allow people who could never afford a small mortgage to borrow huge ones, without proof of income, without deposit, without background check, no matter what the credit history was. Then everyone was surprised that greed took over and the feeding frenzy that ensued created 2 Real Estate bubbles in the past 3 decades and the last one landed us where we are now.

I have no idea who Paulson really is or what was his original motive, or even how he was able to drop the "bomb" he did with the original bail out/Stimulus, but it opened the door for what is happening now. Particularly the way he did it.

The alarmist signs started, by coincidence when Obama won the nomination of his party. By then the "hate bush" plan was working so well for the liberals that "victory" was as sure as the bacon flavored bill we just had shoved down our collective throats was going to pass. Why do you think the entire campaign was (as Usual), vote for me, I am young, adorable, new to the game, and most importantly, I am not the guy you hate (W).  It worked for the bloodiest democratic campaign in history. Obama won the day over Hillary, by being the “agent of change”.

Unfortunately, in spite of their attempts to paste [on Mc Cain] W's face, it didn't work so well. People are not as stupid as liberals think they are. Demonizing Mc Cain backfired on them. More over, when he chose Sarah Palin, she stole their "I am new" campaign fire, plus the "I am making history" since she also was breaking barriers in her own right. Plus she had what he didn't : Executive experience. They demonized her too, but it was clear that in spite of the $700 MM bank rolled campaign they were seriously loosing ground.

So what did it for them? They needed something scary, I mean it work for Bush with the 9/11 crisis. So is it serendipity that this financial mess conveniently blew up sometime in September? No matter how Democrat-like the Republicans acted by doling out money, inflating government, creating programs...etc it seemed that nothing would assuage the hate the past administration provoked among liberals. What it did, was alienate their base, the conservative who started to want them out almost as bad as their ideological counterparts. Back then the puzzle was just a jumble of pieces not making any sense. It did however create an atmosphere where the Republicans became more and more centrist trying to save the pubic opinion of themselves and in fact simply dug a bigger hole to bury their political career.

This brings us to today, 4 years later. Within the first few weeks of the current administration's reign, the media drop all the alarm bells about the economy. In fact they even started to talk about "Encouraging signs of Recovery". As if some news writer had just gutted a chicken in some Green room and was reading the auguries. None of the so-called "signs of recovery" were apparent to anyone, but the Media kept inundating us with rosy news of how worse it could have been. New concepts were invented. It didn't matter now  how precise the Jobs figures were, because it all became irrelevant. Yes, irrelevant because of the magic of semantic re-organizing. Yes, many terms deemed "Negative" to the public opinion were banished from the Administration's spokes people, liberal political pundits, and the general media's vocabulary. Job creation were no longer the most important thing in these scary times, no, we had to settle for "Jobs Saved". Why? well because it is easy to advance any number and impossible to disprove. If Obama says he "Created or Saved" 5 Million Jobs, and you don't agree with that figure, the onus is on you to disprove it. How can that be done. If only One Hundred Thousand  net Jobs were created and that fact can easily be verified, the argument advanced by the administration is that, if it not for the action they took, 4.9 Million Jobs would have been lost, therefore they "Created or Saved 5 Million Jobs (100K Jobs + 4.9 M Jobs = 5M Jobs). Convenient and very clever, isn't it? A bit like that Nobel Peace Prize awarded even before he took office, before he got a chance to do anything, just because of the "Hope" he represents and the positive "Change" he can bring to the world. Wow that Scandinavian Committee in charge of the vetting of the Nobel Candidates really buffed their Cristal ball before they made that decision. It must have been crispy clear for them to be so sure. 

So here we are today. The Economy of the US is not better, it is much worse on all accounts, the financial sector is still shaking and the Real Estate sector is still years away from recovery. Unemployment looks like its resting comfortably above 8%* and poised to remain that way for a long time, the way things are going. So what has changed? Well for the US, nothing much, however, the catastrophic situation here is nothing compared to what is happening in Europe. From Greece to the UK, going through Italy, Spain Portugal and Ireland, the picture is grim to say the least. Banking "malpractice", political pandering and corruption resulted in the explosion of an economic and financial catastrophe that was years in the making. The US is now being blamed  for either not interfering enough, or interfering too much or simply making unrealistic demands and imposing austerity measures on Europe's economy that it was not willing to uphold when its own economy imploded and that the "Printing" of Dollars is a major part of what is going on worldwide in today's Global economy. 

So to summarize, the world still hates the US, for the reasons it did before and for new reasons too. It lost its respect for this country because it is no longer feared and seems to have lost its will or worse, its ability to lead in any way shape or form in all aspects of International policy. The US economy is still extremely dependent on its major European trading partners to purchases its goods (Asian mostly sells to the US) and with their economy failing, the American economy can't count on it to jump-start things here. The rest of the world is now looking for another leader to give them their quick fix to their economic predicament, and thus all eyes are turning towards China. What a Mess!!!!

The situation seems just as Catastrophic as it was in 2008. In fact it is much worse and this time the shoe is on the other foot. The Liberals are in charge now and  the countries to which they've been pointing  as examples to justify their social reform policies are falling apart, and doing so particularly because of those policies that have been in place for the past several decades. So is the bad economy going to work against the current administration's reelection? Most likely yes. No matter how much Obama blames Bush, true or not, people are tired of hearing why we are here. They want to hear how we are going to get out of this mess. 

People want to know who has the best plan moving forward. As things stand, I'd say that unless the conservatives wake up and put out a detailed, step by step plan, clear and simple enough to understand, it's a toss up. On the other hand, if they focus on demonstrating, in a very concise and understandable way, how they are proposing to resolve today's woes, it's their election to lose. Their message must be simple enough so that the Lay-Man can make up its own mind whether it could work or not without relying on some Pundit in the media to put it in words he wants to hear but doesn't trust. Then it will be a landslide for he conservatives. If there are any doubts about how to move forward and if the economy expands ever so slightly and/or unemployment figures drop below 8%, then Obama will most likely be re-elected by the narrowest of margins but re-elected nevertheless. However, if History repeats itself, meaning, if poor economy will work in favor of the "Challenger", then Romney will be elected. Poetic reversal of roles just 4 years later, isn't it?

However, on the world stage, if History were to truly repeat itself, then there is another comparison to be drawn. From my personal point of view, I'll draw the historical comparison between 2 eras in 2 countries: The US and France. In 1976, the US economy was in a recession, just coming out of the Viet Nam War fiasco and the Water Gate Scandal that landed Ford prematurely in the Oval Office. Any one who could fog a mirror could have won a race for the white house against Ford, the animosity against the Republicans and the Hate of Nixon ensured that. So Jimmy Carter (the benevolent but clueless Mr. Magoo as I like to call him) was hoisted on the podium and tried to lead a country, that felt awkward in its own skin, embarassed by its first Military loss in its history, and with a serious identity crisis. American was in full self-pity and self-deprecating mode. Just like a teenager rejecting its strict but loving parents rule, it desperately seeked approval of the rest of the world. America was desperately needing to be seen as the good guy again. Sounds familiar?

In that same period, in France, Valery Giscard d'Estaing was reigning at the Elysee, aloof in his reverie of past Imperial Glory of a France who was no more. Europe was feeling the recession as well and trying to adapt to the new modern post colonial world. The economic boom of the reconstruction resulting from the aftermath of WWII, had waned and the rappatriation en masse of the former colonists of the Former North African French Territorries took a toll on the countries finances, exacerbating further a growing unemployement problem. That exodus had ran its course a few years back already, but the economy had not been able to absorb the cost of the added population. In effect, other European countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal were in much worse shape and their people were flooding France, Germany, England and Switzerland with immigrants seeking economic opportunity. The French President couldn't connect with the population, he "inherited" the position after his predecessor, Georges Pompidou, had the misfortune of passing away before the end of his term (7 years). Pompidou was appreciated by the population and considered a "Good" President. His successor, however, was perceived by the masses as a pompous snob with an attitude similar to that of Marie-Antoinette a couple of centuries earlier.

In May of 1981, the Socialist, Francois Mitterrand replaced him at the Elysee Palace without breaking  a sweat, just because he represented change and promised to help the "little guy" and make the "Rich Guy" pay his fair share. Back in the US, the economy was in much worse situation than 4 years earlier, in spite of the promises made by "Mr. Magoo", and the Foreign affairs were a mess with the US Embassy situation in Iran. That same year, after loosing the Republican Primary 4 years Earlier, and a shaking start in the race till that summer, Ronald Reagan, the "Cowboy from Hollywood" was gaining momentum in the polls, nothing drastic, but steady. He performed poorly on his first debate against Jimmy Carter, but turned things around dramatically in the following debates. So much so, that come election day in November 1981, he took over the Oval Office in a Landslide. Only a few month before, most pundits had already written him off altogether. Mr. Magoo's reelection bid had seemed just natural, a "done deal". The elections process, really just a formality to confirm what everyone so evidently knew would happen. Sounds familiar too? So the US gained Ronald Reagan, now viewed by conservatives as the Standard by which Conservative Presidential Candidates measure themselves. France on the other hand, finally rewarded the hard working Socialist Party, who had been trying to take power at the head of the Government since the turn of the century.

Fast forward 21 years to May 2012. France elects Francois II. Europe Economic woes, seed the fertile ground for Populist Politics and Socialists take the opportunity to pander and promise the return of painless better days. Francois Hollande beats Nicolas Sarkozy who was considered elitists and out of touch with the pain of the common man. So will November 2012 bring  the same to the US, 1981 did? Will Mitt Romney be the Cowboy who wins the House and saves the day? Is Mr. Obama, today's Mr. Magoo, kind but completely clueless, wandering around, flailing blindling through the last days of his presidency? The parallels are numerous, gas prices are through the roof and have been for the past 4 years, unemployment is at the highest it has been in decades, the world still hates America. Benghazi is even worse than the Iran Embassy hostage situation. Obama seems to have fumbled the 2 worse situations of recent history into one: The Benghazi Mess** compiles both of the Iran Hostage fiasco with the Watergate Cover up. Well is that another nail on his Presidential Coffin? We will know for sure by November 6th.
 
Social Safety net for everyone and merit-less entitlement programs have been tried, yes, and proven time and again that it DOES NOT WORK!!! There's no "Social El Dorado", no perfect system and whoever claims to know how to create the perfect society is either a fool or a liar. We are not bees, or ants or termites. Humans are the only Societal Animal that is fiercely individualist. That's the Human Paradox. It is also our strength, what gives us our super adaptability faculty. Adversity forces us to adapt. Take adversity away and we cease to try to adapt and cease to seek to better our condition on our own. We become complacent and if things get uncomfortable, we wait for someone else to act as the agent of change to return us to our sedating comfort. The more things are done for us, the less we attempt to do for ourselves. Without that incentive, we become indolent sheep, more sedated to the stimuli of life and its dangers.

Our independence and thirst for freedom stems from that individuality. It makes us fight for survival against all odds, what gives us the strength to bounce back from the depth of the Abyss of Despair and soar to the limitless sky. This country was founded by Men and Women who came from the bottomless pit of despair from all around the world. People who know that can take comfort in the fact that once they hit rock bottom, they will be able to use that very bottom, to push back on it and launch themselves back up. The lack of Safety net is dangerous, yes, but it is also the greatest motivator to not fail to try harder. However the apogee of Despair is not once you hit rock bottom, but when you are falling and trying to hold on to what you have, to the past as change crumbles it into a new reality. That is when despair is at its most powerful state. It is when your fear of losing what you have, that it is at its apex and when you are the most vulnerable to any deceit. That is when you grasp at straws and refuse to face reality. Once you hit rock bottom, reality hits you in the face whether you wish to acknowledge it or not. You have no choice. That's when Despair looses its power and starts to crumble to ashes and from it rises Hope. When you have nothing left to loose, you have everything to gain...back...and then some. Social justice is a myth, compassion however is real. Philanthropy is also very real. While the former only needs a solid head and a sensitive heart, the latter requires a modicum of financial stability. Even if you donate your time and knowledge, you need to be materially comfortable enough to spare the time, effort and thought. If you are busy barely surviving, you will not spare a second thought to whoever is in a worse predicament you are. It is easier to save a man sinking in "quick sands" when one has both feet firmly planted on solid ground, armed with the necessary rope, perch or other useful tools, than by jumping in the troubled area along side the man.

The forefathers of this country understood that individualistic trait of the Human Character and recognized its strength and its fallacies. That is why they framed the government of this nation the way they did. They gave more power to the Individual over the Politician, more power to the individual States than to the Federal Government and thus assured the power of this Nation and its posterity because that  Power is anchored on the fierce independent, self-sufficient, self relying spirit of each inhabitant of this land, whether he's been here for generations or just got here off the boat, plane or raft. The sooner the Politicians remember that, the sooner this country will get back on track leading the world.  This is, after all, the Cup which overflows to the rest of the world. Whatever it is filled with, always overflows and spills over to the rest of the Nations of the World, Good or Bad.

*(even though "creative reporting" has it at 7.9% by calling people at home in the middle of the day and asking them if they are working, yeah, right, that data beats empirical data based on company reporting and unemployment benefit registration)
** Updated on 11/5/12

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